Re: B.C. Francis' post...I've worked with Dave Zierden in the past -- just last summer, in fact -- and he's going to be watching those signals, but he and the group he works with, the Fl. Climate Center and COAPS here at Florida State, are usually very hesitant to jump the gun and declare an El Nino (or for that matter, La Nina) event. The warming we had earlier this year was never declared an El Nino by their group, the condition being that it did not meet their criterion of an extended period of substantial warming in the Pacific (as defined by the JMA index). If they're talking though, I'll listen.