I would think one might get a better idea about the high come late June or mid-July.If The Alley is right on there predictions then I would suspect a more active GOM season.The fact remains that every storm has it's own set of variables that affect it's intensity and path.I have dropped a little tool to help in the understaning how Lows affect the path of storms.

http://meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm

This should show one that it is really fruitless to worry about something weeks in advance because of all the variables that take place.One should on the other hand just be calm and prepared in the event should something happen.