danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed May 18 2005 12:51 AM
Re: Tropical Storm Adrian

That's a great site to use. I'll start with a short version and just maybe one of the mets can finish it out.
First-that's the Tuesday morning 8EDT/ 7CDT, model. Since we are talking about the wind speeds and pressures we will go ahead with this 54 hr model prog.
12Z17MAY2005- wind at 950mb. Now look in the lower right hand corner and you will see the max wind and min pressure for this hour of the Forecast.( 951.3hPa and Max 950mb wind =126 knots)
So we have determined that the Model is forecasting a possibility of min central pressure of 951.3hPa (or mb) and 126.0 winds.
In the Northern Hemisphere the right side of the storm, in reference to it's direction of movement, should have the stronger windfield. In this particular case the GFDL is indicating a stronger windfield in the 5 thru 7 o'clock position, or the rear semicircle. I'm not real sure about the reasoning that's being used. Here are my thoughts.
The Southern semicircle is :
In an area of less wind shear.
Most removed from the mountainous topography, ahead of the storm.
Other possibility is that the trof moving in from Baha California has advanced over the top of the storm and is inducing a speed increase over the southern half of the storm.
**HF or Clark, your input is very welcome here.



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