TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005

THE OVERALL PATTERN IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE CENTER AND A WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND CONTINUES TO THE EAST OF THE ( CDO ) CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 40 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND ADRIAN IS MOVING OVER A WARM OCEAN OF 30 DEGREES CELSIUS OR HIGHER. THEN...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT ADRIAN COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. WEAKENING DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND HIGH SHEAR IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST KEEPS ADRIAN AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEYOND 48 HOURS.
( full text discussion available at this following link )
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP1+shtml/180826.shtml