Clark
(Meteorologist)
Mon Jun 06 2005 12:58 PM
Re: The 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today

Conditions are marginally more favorable, as the TWO suggests. The upper low that has been present in the area is moving westward, leaving the area in a region of shortwave (localized) upper-level ridging. As a result, though, the diffluence enhancing convection is starting to lessen. Kind of a chicken and egg type thing, yeah, but we're still looking a few days down the road. Depending on which model you look at, per JK's blog post & some analysis, some develop the W Carib feature, others develop the E Carib feature.

Things are slightly more favorable to see tropical develop in the E Carib right now than they were yesterday, but I still believe non-tropical (likely subtropical/hybrid) development, once the system starts, is more likely. This has some support from the globals. We'll see what happens, but it's something to keep an eye on.



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