| recmod |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Jul 05 2005 11:00 AM |
|
Re: Joe Bastardi
|
Quote:
The discussion is not up yet though...
Yes it is: From Weather Underground:
Quote:
Banding features are becoming better defined and...based on a Dvorak
classification of t2.5 from TAFB...the cyclone is being named.
This is the earliest date ever to have four named tropical cyclones
in the Atlantic Basin. The storm will be in a low-shear and high
oceanic heat content environment for the next several days...so
further strengthening is likely. The official intensity forecast
may be conservative at the longer range...but there is little if
any skill in intensity change prediction at days 4-5.
Dennis is moving a little north of west near 16 kt as a result of a
deep easterly steering flow to the south of the subtropical high.
A general west-northwestward track with a little deceleration is
predicted. This is similar to the previous forecast and in good
agreement with the dynamical model consensus. Because of
uncertainty in longer-range track predictions...it is too early to
speculate on what portions of the U.S. Might be threatened.
A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of Hispaniola
at this time.
Forecaster Pasch
The 11am forecast track is taking Dennis furthur into the Gulf, lessening any threat to the Florida Peninsula...however, Florida's sparing might mean New Orleans' problem.
--Lou