4:00PM 6.July.2005
Check out Ed Dunham's thoughts on Dennis in the blog below this article. A new update will come later tonight here. Biggest thing to remember is the area and uncertainty of the forecast beyond 36 hours or so remains very high. The "Cone of error" is very large, do not focus on the line in the projection graphics. Especially with this system.

Original Update
Tropical Storm Cindy, arguably briefly a hurricane, is now making landfall along the Lousiana coastline. It's pressure is back up a bit, precluding it from being classified as a hurricane. Still, I think a few folks along that coastline may be surprised by what happens with the system. Rain and isolated tornadoes are the primary threats from the storm, despite the higher-than-expected wind speeds, but those along the coast will still have to deal with some fairly strong winds as the storm makes landfall.

Dennis has strengthened a little more tonight and probably will gain even more strength tomorrow. The future path of Dennis is still unclear. The latest projection was shifted slightly to the right while model guidance is spread from the Houston area to the Florida Big Bend out to 5 days, making it something the entire Gulf coast needs to watch this week. That and the added possibilty of steering currents breaking down if the storm reaches the Gulf, considerbly complicates the matter. This could cause the storm to stall out in the Gulf of Mexico for a bit. As a large, major hurricane.

The National Hurricane Center's new intensity forecast for Dennis has it becoming a major hurricane in three days, something that would make it the first such storm of the year. This is a substantial jump from the 5p advisory, which only called for it reaching to about 90-95mph in peak intensity. It's entirely possible, considering some of the guidance and if the storm misses most of the landmasses, that the storm could become even stronger than forecast; it's also possible that it could interact with land and never reach major status. It's important to note, the conditions ahead of dennis are very positive for strengthening. So even the Hurricane Center's estimates may be conservative.

Remember that the long range "Cone" on the left has a fairly large error. It still implies that all of the coastline along the Gulf will need to watch it, including Florida. Those in the Gulf watching the storm should do just that -- watch it -- and start to review those hurricane checklists and supply cabinets, just in case. Be prepared, even if it looks like it will miss your area.

Will Dennis follow the track along nicely? Will it slide more to the west, curve sooner than thought to the north? All of that would have little effect on the short term forecast, but a great effect on the 5 day position.

Three aircraft are out and about looking at the storms, one in Cindy, a NOAA research one for Dennis, and an Air Force plane for Dennis as well.

We'll be watching it tomorrow and throughout the rest of the week, with more to come in the morning. Maps and more will arrive shortly.

Event Related Links

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Cindy:
Animated Model Plot of Cindy
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Cindy
Color Satellite of Gulf of Mexico
Mobile Bay Long range Radar
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
New Orleans Long range radar
Visible Satellite Loop of Cindy

Dennis
Animated Model Plot of Dennis
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Dennis

Floater Satellite (Visible) of Dennis