Wed Jul 06 2005 03:38 AM
Re: ts/hur cindy, dennis

I have to agree that it is way too early to predict intensity. I would expect a hurricane but how strong is anyones guess. I'm not expecting more than Can I but we both know that with all the warm water in the Gulf, anything is possible, just not necessarlily likely. A lot depends on the 500mb ridge over Florida, how strong, eroded by Cindy, movement to the East etc. If it erodes or moves or weakens enough, Florida would likely see much more effect. If it stays on the forecast track, well, the central gulf will get another blast it doesn't need, not that anyone actually *needs* a hurricane on their front doorstep. Maybe Texas could use a strong depression to dump some rain where it is needed but no one really needs a tropical system visiting them. I also agree that the media hype and 'nicknames' are usually contraproductive. But, like the storms themselves, we, you and I can do little or nothing except to preach the facts as we understand them based upon knowledge and experience. You are an excellent prognosticator and I think have a good grasp of the technical stuff. I've lived through more stormes than I can remember going back as far as 1943 and including Camille, Donna, Betsy and others including 3 of 4 of the major storms last season. So, you have the knowledge, I have the experience, together, we have a shot at arriving at the truth, such as it is. The truth is that we simply don't know, but we *can* make educated guesses and with each season and each storm, we do try and learn and apply the knowledge. In our own ways, we are both passing on our knowledge of the storms. Hopefully, that will help someone make better decisions when they are faced with an unnwelcome visitor from the tropics. Take care, live long and prosper...

PS, excuse my spelling...it's 3:40am and I have to teach in the morning No time to proofread this one...

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