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Full update coming on the met. blogs on the front page, but here are the highlights:

* Dennis' northwesterly jog will spare the island of Jamaica from the worst, but they will still be dealing with hurricane-force winds for some time. Areas on the north side of the island will be especially prone to flooding due to the higher terrain & flow up the mountains towards the south.

* The eye is becoming better defined in satellite imagery; Dennis may be peaking near major hurricane intensity before land interactions begin to slow it down somewhat. Recon is on its way and a fix is due for the next hour or two.

* Models are trending further and further east with time, coming into line with the FSUMM5 but still a bit west of the Canadian model. The upper-air pattern is becoming a bit better defined and the data input to the models from the surveillance plane has had a noticeable impact on the projected path of the storm.

More on track & intensity forecast and synoptic reasoning within the next half-hour.

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