I've been watching the MM5 12Z run being worked on at FSU, and I got to say it's interesting comparing it to the 0Z run from earlier in the day. Being a mathematician, I'm a little disturbed at how so far the plot is concave up versus concave down through 12hrs. In other words, the 0Z run had it 12hrs into southern Cuba by means of an "upside down" bowl curve, whereas the newest run is going upwards into Cuba.

Granted, storms don't have to follow patterns of nice smooth continuous curves...but the concave down pattern from earlier made me think of the bermuda high acting to "shunt" the storm downward and keep it depressed as it moved west. If models start seeing upward concavity, I begin to imagine the high weakening and not preventing the poleward movement as much as it has in the past.

Of course, since my degree is in math, I'm just throwing darts in the wind....a hurricane strength wind, mind you. If we all don't get wiped out by the storm, I'm going to have some great test questions for my Calculus students this fall, though....