Whether your educated or not-so-educated guess goes east or more west, it looks like we may have the potential for severe flooding with or without a direct hit.

Don't know if anyone has been paying attention, but record rains have had many areas above flood stage for months now. Extremely unusually high tables for June & early July. In Arcadia, they have had what they generally call "100 year flood" conditions. I know it is similar in other areas.

Even without storm surge, inland flooding from feeder bands could be severe. Sandbags might be appropriate in some areas.

See:
USGS Water Level Data - Florida

-Bev