I'm still thinking Western Panhandle, pretty much along the NHC's track. South florida mayg et some of the storm's outer regions, that's why it's under a tropical storm watch. However, there isn't much room for it to make a direct hit there.

Concentrate in the Eastern Gulf. I'm not doubting the NHC at all on this, and don't see any reason to do so. If you are under a watch or warning area you need to prepare regardless. In fact I would get gas, etc now even if it does not come your way because of the rush that would occur if anything trended in your direction.