As much as the models have waved back and forth, their average position has remained relatively stable. I think the NHC forecast has been 'wiggleing' a little bit (so it looks like they're doing something <grin>), but again their forecast has been that this storm will be well offshore almost since the first day. What has changed more is the INTENSITY and SIZE of this storm. A small Charley sized storm probably wouldn't affect you at all at that distance, but this is a much larger storm so the edges got closer to you. The strongest winds will be from the S-SW in your area (don't park on the NORTH side of a large tree

I feel that you won't have to evacuate only that you should include those plans as a possibility, albeit not a great possibility.

Having said that, we are *still* 2+ days from its closest approach in your area and there is time for the steering to change and drive the storm closer. It is also possible that it could be pushed a bit further away. In either event, worry and fear will NOT help you or anyone else. Planning and preparation will reduce the risk of injury so if you've done that, it is out of our hands and worry won't change the outcome.

I'm only a few miles further than you from the storm and we are in the 50% chance of TS winds. So, I expect breezy condition, perhaps some unneeded rain and hopefully NO tornados. Actually, I 'fear' the tornados far more than Dennis but tornados can occur even in a summer thunderstorm, so again, watch, prepare and relax!

Richard