dennis is going to cross cuba at an oblique angle. i'm thinking the forecast intensity is rather high in the early period as the island should disrupt the core of the storm. probably go by the lower keys as a cat 1 or 2. if it gets on the right side of the guidance envelope then the proximity to florida and shallow coastal waters should cap any massive reintensification... unless the inner core is small. the nhc track still looks about right given the questions around how well dennis can handle cuba. landfall intensity as a 2 or 3 also looks right.. it will be 1/2 if it tracks near the west coast of florida to the big bend. might bottom out at 4 late this evening before it starts to nick cuba... but the pressure falls have slowed late this afternoon (though the flight level winds seem to have caught up.. or recon just found some good samples).
the large tropical wave south of the cape verdes is our next best candidate to be anything. it shouldn't organize inside of 2-3 days, though. big, flat ridge and significantly warm ssts only past 40w, so i reckon there may be a developing system nearing the islands next week, wednesday or so.
later model runs have adjusted some generic track features about dennis as well. the consensus now takes it north and those slow/stall in the mid-mississippi valley solutions are scant. another note is the sooner landfall progs than yesterday.. late sunday instead of late monday. it was tuesday the 12th two days ago. i don't see it getting much sooner... late 10th/early 11th looks good.
HF 2325z07july