dennis will probably be very bad news for folks at the coast, but the erratic behavior the models are showing after landfall once it runs out of ridge to ride and the low level flow kicks in... latest gfs runs have it running up to near southern illinois and then drifting back south to central mississippi by july 15th. i don't know if it can maintain a coherent circulation overland for that long, and it will probably shear off at some point.. but seeing that erratic behavior makes me wary of a serious inland flood threat in the midsouth.
dennis kept a tight inner core during it's passage of cuba... in spite of staying over land for a good while. it should spin back up to cat 3 or 4 in 12-24 hrs. i'm less optimistic about getting the pcb-destin strike window right.. as unwavering nhc track near pensacola and mobile continues to stand strong.
the globals are showing two apparent tropical cyclone threats coming out of the eastern atlantic in the following week. one is the wave consolidating the broad disturbed weather near 30-35w. in spite of a great environment aloft on the models and ssts that are well within support range gfs and the rest of the globals aren't showing much for it. when it gets near 40-45 west those ssts really start to go up... i wouldn't be surprised if a tropical cyclone named emily is threatening the ne caribbean around tue next week. the other thing showing on the globals is the follow-on wave which should emerge late tomorrow or early sunday. globals keep it on a low latitude approach, showing a persistent strong wave/surface low but not taking it off. that won't be a development threat for days, so not holding my breath.
dennis is going onto the home stretch. it's already secured a name retirement by its early season thrashing of the caribbean... let's hope it doesn't become infamous up here in the states.
HF 0601z09july