i'm not sure why the nhc dropped their major hurricane progs given how much the storm has improved since midnight. the inner core convection has come back, and the secondary bands are contracting towards the center on the east side of the storm... also squeezing out that subsidence that has been suppressing convection on the western side of the storm.
well, hold that thought. just read the 11am discussion... they're just going conservative, but the forecast is implicit that it will be a fringe major hurricane at landfall. i think they're going a little low... my best bet is that the storm impacts the same general area at the same general intensity as eloise in 1975. i don't see this thing hitting at above 960mb, but not below 945 or so either. next center fix if the pressure is edging 960 i'd be pretty sure this is on cue. official still taking it over near pensacola.. think 60-70 miles east, which isn't all that different, but worse for the pcb area than destin-penscola. the disco comments about some of the models not initializing the features near the western gulf correctly shades the members to the right... sound enough that i'll go with it.
HF 1610z09july