| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 09 2005 07:51 PM |
|
CFHC POSTER BASHING
|
First of all, let me explain to you that this is a forum for WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS, not WEATHER EXPERTS...and we have them here, too. Secondly, I will direct you to this part of the 11:00AM discussion in which they address what you said they did NOT SAY earlier in the week. Actually, they DID say it, but the models did not pick up on it:
Quote:
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/12. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 06Z AND ESPECIALLY AT 12Z...ALONG WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...INDICATE THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN GULF JUST SOUTH OF LOUISIANA IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN AND LARGER THAN ANY OF THE MODELS WERE INDICATING AT 00Z AND 06Z. THE NOGAPS MODEL DID NOT
CAPTURE THIS FEATURE AT ALL...AND IT AND THE GFDN MODELS ARE THE ONLY MODELS THAT TAKE DENNIS TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THE 12Z MODELS SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT GIVEN THAT THE LOW IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...AND THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND IS
NOW LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
Secondly, they shifted the track slightly to the EAST at 11:00AM, maybe by a hair, but with landfall closer to Pensacola, FL rather than to the MS/AL line.
Thirdly, they have continued to mention in each updated advisory SINCE 11:00AM that the storm is initially moving towards the NW with a gradual turn to the NNW from Saturday night into Sunday. That would rule out another poster's comments that they meant the turn would be up in TN, since the storm is to make landfall tomorrow. I also would think that if the models have now picked up on this trough and the ridge axis shifting more northward, then they will AGAIN adjust the track slightly to the EAST, bringing landfall somewhere in between Pensacola and Panama City Beach.
Lastly, I will address the rudeness of your post This is a site where people are allowed to air their thoughts (I'll admit some overdo it a little too often ). When a storm is approaching, we look at all kinds of scenarios. We happened to look at what we thought was the trough digging deeper down, which would push the storm closer to S. Florida. It did not happen in time, but until it passed the lat/lon of ANY part of S. Florida (and I believe the Keys would be considered S. Florida, don't you?) no one really knew what it was going to do. Now, I haven't seen a single post on here since this morning saying that it was still going to hit S. Florida.
As a longtime poster and member, I would kindly ask you to refrain from bashing others who simply like weather as a hobby. Some of us are better at it than others, but that doesn't mean we can't come here.
Thank you in advance.