it still has time to do the ERC thing and spin down to manageable levels. intensity changes with these strong ones are unpredictable... it would be a lot nicer to see the winds drop 20 mph before landfall. that 1mb pressure fall since the last advisory suggests that it's near the upper threshold it can get to... hopefully the only thing that dennis can do from here is weaken. i'm not wanting to see that perpendicular impact effect that accelerates the winds and tightens the core that joe b talks about. not at all.
God forbid that the core moves over pensacola. lots more to break there than port charlotte.
we'll probably have an emily tomorrow, in other news. misery loves company.
HF 1336z10july