The sniping at the models for soon to be Emily has already begun and chief antagonist Joe Bastardi has once again announced today that Emily will stay south of the islands and be a Texas event...he is using some guidance that has proven so far to be on the left side of things.
One thing I will say about the models for Dennis...NHC did great on the locations throughout and poor on the intensity..
As some will recall I as on the right side all the way and I am dismayed really that more attention was not placed on that by local planners and officials.
This storm reached a point about 165 miles sw to my location and then reintensified from mid range cat 2 to 4. The posibillity of a more northward turn was still realisic. IF that had occured that storm would have traversed the coast abreast of my loction about 75-90 miles off shore and not 185.
The chances then of more sever coastal flooding and higher and persistent winds would have existed and the evacuations would have been higher level, and by then the weather was already dangerous at times. the models performed well on this storm, but then we have last summer's records to use. in our comparisons.
It is a very fine line as to just how much information to get out and when to do it. The peninsula is really VERY vulnerable to quick last minute alteration in the course of these very powerful storms...There may not be a good answer.