well.. if joe is right this morning, i'm going to miss my call on emily getting the big islands. lots of the globals still smearing emily into a surface trough... running it into the yucatan. of course emily is staying south of the guidance envelope, too... put it all together and the forecast track may keep shifting south and put the storm on a more climatological track to the yucatan. i'm thinking it might be a little overdone and will hold on the storm making it into the gulf around sun/mon.
situation behind emily is complex. the small low to emily's southeast at 8/35 is slowing down.. while the impressive wave nearing 30w behind it is gaining on it. these two may combine to form the next system... none of the models are really showing this, though. it'll be hard to pinpoint exactly where franklin will try to form.. only consideration i have about it's track will track north of emily's path and slowly deepen. there's a chance it catches a trough near 65w over the weekend (not like the gfs shows... silly thing tries to recurve everything).... bastardi says it misses the trough connection and goes west... that's what i'm looking for too. if it doesn't then we'll get our first recurving fish spinner of the season.
this will take the rest of the week to unfold. emily seems to be speeding up, so watches ought to start popping in the lesser antilles soon.
oh yeah... watching the tail of that trough off the east coast. there's a kink in the trades approaching, and that trough should lift out and leave it be in day or two.
HF 1517z12july