Clark
(Meteorologist)
Tue Jul 12 2005 09:54 PM
Re: sat pics of emily

Lysis, that's certainly the implication. Surface winds can serve to blow water around -- particularly strong surface winds -- but that is generally seen over the long-term and not so much the short term. If anything, the surface waters are slightly warmer in that region now as opposed to a week ago, but it is debateable as to whether or not it will last. It is not likely that the outer fringes of the storm substantially impacted the sub-surface waters -- the wind speeds and mixing of the ocean were not strong enough there, nor was the duration long enough.

It's interesting to note that the Navy's SST product does not show any substantial change in that region during the month of July; if anything, the waters south of Jamaica are slightly cooler than at the start of the month. Waters much further to the south are perhaps slightly warmer, but that is likely beyond the sphere of influence of Dennis as well as further south than the projected path for Emily. See for yourself: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/sst2.ias.jsmovie.html

Looking at the satellite loop of Emily, it looks like the deep convection around the center is trying to reform, but in turn with that it appears that the center has moved a bit further south once again. If this system does not gain some latitude shortly, it will be scraping the coast of South America through the eastern Caribbean, where the waters near to shore are rather cool and rather shallow. It will be interesting both to see what recon finds as well as what this storm does over the next few days...the surface circulation is probably still very small and relatively weak, but the mid-level circulation is very, very impressive.



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