danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Jul 13 2005 12:16 AM
Re: Invest 99L and Emily

Well I'm no one. But I did stay at Holiday Inn last night.
Just kidding...stress breaker there!

I looked back at NHC's 5 day track for Dennis.
I was very surprised to find that on Wednesday, July 6th, at 4:30 AM EDT, (that's almost 107 hours of track), NHC posted a track map with Dennis' track to nearly the precise point of landfall.
The only variations in the 'skinny black line' were where Dennis went over Northern Cuba. He was a bit East of the forecast track.
Florida landfall point was well within 50 miles, it appeared.
I seem to recall Londovir posting something to this effect right after Dennis' Landfall.
If they have this much 'luck' with the models for the rest of the season. This year will write many records. Not just with the storms but with NHC's forecast error verification.



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