Clark
(Meteorologist)
Thu Jul 14 2005 06:36 AM
Re: Steve Gregory's Wunderground blog

Terra -- usually weak hurricane status is when hurricanes really start showing their eye. There may be hints of one forming on IR satellite imagery now, but if not, I imagine we'll see one soon as the system becomes better organized.

I bandied these thoughts about with HF & others around here earlier this evening, but I'm not convinced that the dropsonde used to upgrade the system all the way to 90mph didn't hit a convective tower (localized area of very deep convection with winds temporarily stronger than those found throughout the system as a whole) on its way down. Flight-level winds are usually a bit stronger than the surface winds due to friction (and the fact that they don't fly all that high up), yet they have not climbed above 79kt yet. Pressure has fallen a good 10mb this evening, which does suggest the storm has strengthened, but I wonder if the true intensity is closer to 75-80mph than to 90mph. I do agree that it is a hurricane, however, given the flight level wind evidence and maintained pressure falls. Just me thinking out loud.

Have a good night, everyone...



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