Thu Jul 14 2005 07:28 PM
stuff to ponder

just looked at the 18z gfs... it sends emily through the yucatan channel and into the central texas coast on july 20th. it's just one run; that'll have to start appearing in multiple runs for any confidence to build.
99L may or may not have a closed low. the max is around 15-16N/43W... moving w to wnw. the 2pm twd mentioned it gaining some latitude... i don't see the kind of northward movement prescribed by most of the globals.. they're trying to shear it off to the north, and it just isn't deep enough to ride out. also there's a 500mb ridge building in NE of it which should keep pressuring it wnw. the wave signature that doesn't shear off is tracked to a position btw bermuda and puerto rico by this monday. i'm guessing that's where the system will be at that time. with the ridging over the nw atlantic, anything over that were to get there would like come charging westward. i'm not sure if the mechanics for this will work out.. if it does shear off it either won't develop or will get sucked out into the north atlantic.
wave at 20w mildly interesting.. but the models don't seem to notice it.
dennis remnants are still sitting and spinning near the ky/in border. broad weak low at the surface but a still a strong turning aloft. it's been driving the lower tropospheric flow out of the west for much of the southeast and causing good convergence with the deep southeasterly flow we usually get this time of year.. lots of thunderstorms all over the region, moisture being wrenched out of the atmosphere.
HF 0028z15july

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