quoth Joe B. on his trop. vid. this am.

quite an interesting little disco by JB. Despite the modeling evidence to the contrary, and the official NHC forecast, JB is sticking to his guns that Franklin will drift eastward and hang out underneath the building ridge, then make the 'jeanne-like' loop backwards towards florida/georgia; gotta give him this, he's sticking to his guns. i'm NOT ready to stick a fork in Franklin and send him to the fish yet, but i'd say that the only ones who need to worry about him are some bahamians, shipping interests, and maybe bermuda further down the road.

The Yucatan system is definitely showing signs of development as it departs the peninsula and gets into the GOM...can't say for sure whether this one is headed into mexico or the tex/mex border, but it should be Gert by the time it does landfall in a few days...whether it's TS gert or Hurricane Gert remains to be seen, but with the pattern and the GOM temps, it's just ripe for development.

i know it's been discussed here, but has anyone REALLY looked at the temps off the east coast? 80's as far north as Jersey...in JULY! even LI is well into the 70's and this is almost unheard of...this does NOT bode well for a potential cane coming north...not well at all...once "our" cane season opens for bizness in mid-August, you can be sure i'll be watching the tropics with more than a passing interest.

Finally, there's the "MDR" (i think that's what it's called - the mean development region') where CV storms coming off africa can really intensify---temps there are also way above normals...looks like, as if 2005 hasn't been busy enough already, we've got a potential 1995-type season ahead, numbers wise...busted forecasts will be the rule, not the exception.

anyhoo, sorry for the long post, but i may be heading out of town for the weekend and not back till sunday late afternoon or early evening...just wanted to get my $.02 in now if that is indeed the case.

loveta hear what some real mets think about the things i've just thrown about so casually

is it 1954 all over again?

1954