>>I like to leave the physics for the models...Here's a link to the current 1000mb or surface level steering currents

Naturally. But depending on the system in question, one might go for the 800, 500 or 200 as the steering levels change in different scenarios. In the case of the flow map you posted, timing would be everything. Will the midwestern high build in and merge with the offshore high as that pattern has been repeating itself since June? Or will Franklin be up and out by then? As always, timing timing timing. Of course that and $0.50 could buy you a coke at a discount retailer.

Steve