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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005 edited~danielw ...TROPICAL WAVES... EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 28W/29W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KT. LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS...UPPER-AIR TIMESECTIONS FROM DAKAR AND SAL...AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT A PERSISTENT AREA OF TSTMS SW OF THE CAPE VERDES IS A REFLECTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS SMALLER IN AMPLITUDE THAN THE ONE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE ONE SOON TO EMERGE OFF WEST AFRICA. MOST OF THE SIGNAL OF THE WAVE IS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS WITH ONLY A SMALL SURFACE REFLECTION NOTED... THOUGH THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST. IT SEEMS LIKE EVERY WAVE RECENTLY HAS BEEN A CANDIDATE FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE VERY WARM WATER AND LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR MORE REMINISCENT OF THE MIDDLE OF AUGUST RATHER THAN LATE IN JULY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG 20N41W TO 14N44W TO 1014 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 11N45W TO 7N46W MOVING WEST 20 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 41W AND 44W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LARGER WAVE CIRCULATION BUT THIS SHOULD SLOWLY MIX OUT AS TSTM ACTIVITY INCREASES. MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE LESSER ANTILLES ON FRIDAY WITH A PRECEDING "TAIL" OF MOISTURE ENTERING TOMORROW. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/270633.shtml? |