well, the official had it 'splitting' too. it'll probably fire up new convection near the center later on. some of what it's leaving may get entrained into the weakness/collection point near the bahamas over the next couple of days.. along with the weak disturbance near 20/60 moving wnw. gfs/nam have a discontinuous-looking feature moving up the east coast around the weekend out of this thing. the 92L disturbance has two main vorticity lobes to it... the one to the south or the one to the north can develop... it's starting to look like the northern piece will. 93L behind it is undergoing some easterly shear from the ridging building to the north, but should continue to slowly organize. the waves are spaced by about 12/13 degrees.. enough so that they shouldn't intermingle. new wave coming off looks ok too and 06z gfs develops it also. still a lot of variety on the projected deep layer low in the east central atlantic... some showing it in a sharp trough that may preclude tropical nature. others show it developing like a cutoff hybrid low. there's another disturbance showing in various model runs along the north central gulf coast that's probably just related to the 500mb weakness that is supposed to back up there over the weekend. eyeball there, too. whole mess of things that can go active later this week/weekend.
HF 1404z27july