There's a chance that the storms will continue west underneath the ridge, or there's a chance that they will recurve around its perophery. It can be the difference of 10m in height in the mid-levels that determines whether a storm recurves or not, or it could be whether or not a trough comes through at the right time to pick up a storm. We can't tell any of those well in advance of the storm -- and the models don't always get those and other factors precisely correct, as we saw last year -- so to say that any particular area is moreso under the gun than any other, beyond what climatology might suggest, isn't prudent.

Based upon a sheer increase in activity, however, everywhere is moreso under the gun than normal. Research is ongoing to try to see if the probabilities of a particular area being hit or not can be determined, but that science is in its infancy and just experimental at this point. Anyone who says that a certain area will or will not see a storm this season is lying, because they do not know. You can say that there is an increased likelihood of a storm potentially affecting your area, based upon an overall average of the steering currents & storm activity, but that's about as far as we can go right now.

What Bastardi, Gray, and others are doing in reality follows along these lines, though I don't know if I'd go so far as to assign points to various reasons as does JB. But, the way they get interpreted and occasionally presented leads many to think that this is not the case -- it's here where some in the media create a large disconnect between fiction and reality for the sake of ratings & readership. Read everything you can out there, but unless you see it rooted in scientific research (past, current, or ongoing), take it with a grain of salt.

With all of that said...I think everyone here needs to tone down the banter just a little bit. There's no sense in having a flame war go on. Feel free to express your opinions, share your ideas, talk about the storm -- talk about whatever! -- but please do be considerate of others here when doing so. It's one thing to disagree over politics or your favorite baseball team or how many coins I have in my hand; it's another to be talking about life & death when it comes to these storms in mere wishes.