Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Jul 28 2005 04:03 AM
Re: models I have learned so much from you guys here. Thanks and keep up the good work

I understand Debbie. 2004 was a wakeup call for a lot of people that now call Florida home. Because of what they refer to as the Multi Decadal Cycle (has to do with ocean warming) that we're in now (last one lasted from the 40's through the 60's), there will be a lot more hits than even us coastal long-timers are used to. These cycles last from perhaps 20-50 years, and we've apparently been in this one since 1995 after a lull from 1970-1994ish. Storms are a fact of life. There is no defense against them, so it's on us as individuals and heads of households to learn how to prepare for and deal with them. The best advice I could ever give anyone is to heed whatever warnings the NHC and your local NWS puts out. If they say "get", then get. Often times it will be a false alarm, but a day or two of inconvenience due to a false alarm is better than making funeral arrangements. I know I'm whacked in the head with hurricanes, and my wife absolutely loathes and fears them (and thinks I'm a complete idiot when it comes to following the tropics), but I get nervous just like you and most other people do. But my fascination tempered with the anticipation for the possible extremes gives rise to irrational behavior (e.g. wanting to see what storm 'x' has to offer). In a way, it's like the proverbial train wreck. You know it's bad, but I gotta look anyway. Twisted? Probably.

But you're at one of the best places on the web to learn about this stuff. And your two storms last year probably prepared you a bit for what lies ahead and what might be the upper limit your home and nerves can handle.

Ryan,

I don't know about 92L. I really don't have any thoughts on it yet. I'm just watching.

Steve



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