i'm going to guess that the fun starts friday.
clark covered 92/93 in the same sort of fashion i would. well... with a more professional touch. my guess is that 92L will have consolidated enough to develop by friday.. 93L may reach the threshold around the same time (really whenever it gets east of the upper easterly jet which is shearing it). 92L will probably develop very close to the northern leewards, 93L will be on a lower trajectory. 92L is the larger threat to the u.s. in about a week, dependent on how stable the western periphery of the ridge is around that time.
clark mentioned the gulf feature... similar take here.. a whole scatter of models see it differently, and many keep it close enough to land that its offshore development window would be sort of sketchy. an impulse rotating offshore la on the back side of that 500mb weakness or a wave on whatever is left of the front offshore would have to be the culprit.
three other mentionables for a total of six. notice the piece of wave energy that was trackable from the large wave that lead the moisture surge off africa... moving northwest of puerto rico. this will feed into the 500mb weakness in franklin's wake near the bahamas and several models are showing development riding up the eastern seaboard that is potentially a propagation of this feature... we may have a close-in development this weekend running roughly from the bahamas to nc/sc to nantucket.
next is the wave trailing 93L.. it's fairly robust, just not as far along as the others. various globals are tracking/developing it. it'll won't happen before next week, though.
other thing is the complex deep layer system forecast to develop around 30n/45-50w. globals run all sorts of features out of this to several different compass points.. and use it as a weakness to draw up 93L and it's trailer. i'm more convinced the trailer will catch the lift than 93L will... maybe both. this may make a run at hybrid development, and may cause the western periphery of the ridge to amplify (i.e. turn up whatever is trying to come underneath it near the east coast).
anyhow, very active setup we have here. 2-3 storms likely to emerge out of it, outside shot at 4. this weekend/next week things ought to get pretty interesting.
HF 0712z28july