interesting irene analysis, hf...just read jb and checked the modeling...some model guidance is not responding to the weak upper trough in the central Atlantic and are keeping irene on a west-northwest track through Day 5...there is a chance irene may have been written off too quickly...while i still think the trof canl pick up irene and carry her to fish territory, there is still a chance, albeit slight, she can slip underneath the ridge and pose a threat to the EC and Bermuda down the road...jb thinks wednesday will be the "make or break" day for this...he is also concerned, as hf mentioned, about a little homebrew off the east coast, but this would be at best a 'coast skimmer'...

i would say it's prolly 50/50 that irene remains a TS at the 11:00, although ships keeps her intensity steady and increases it to 55 kts at 72 hours...

i'll go contrary to the nhc at this point (and hope that i'm wrong) and say irene DOES persist, perhaps even almost becoming an open wave, but maintains her westerly track for the next several days...this would indeed pose an ec threat next week...again, i hope i'm wrong...only time will tell...

as far as any other tropical activity, africa continues to produce a wave train, but they don't seem to be holding together as well at the moment, and they also are a bit further north; anything that does develop should simply spin the fish...

remember, we're already up to "I" and we haven't even hit the peak of the season yet...still plenty of time for tropical trouble to brew and we should really be grateful for a few more days of relative calm before the fit hits the shan...

BUCKLE UP