two consecutive runs of euro are bringing irene across now. the model probably keeps it too weak in the near term though. fact stands though, most of the globals have shifted west. i'm not ready to buy into irene making it across... still think it goes out (and stalls) near bermuda. the setup is potentially there, however.
weak low in the ne caribbean from earlier is just that.. weak and helpless. nice comment MM relating it to emily 1999. it's a tight low-level swirl with no cdo.. maybe it's also a relative of td 4 from 2000? well, lots of shear ahead... no chance.
that weak low i was commenting on now se of irene... the other night i said it might do some fujiwhara thing.. well, the tracks were as such today. irene sort of pivoted around it.. probably a function of upper steering.. but still kind of cool. there's a wind surge, saharan air burst.. and oncoming wave which should crunch the little swirl near 17/50. wave axis has a broad turning near the itcz se of there. if there wasn't a ton of subsidence near the center we'd be talking about an up and coming invest. it may look more impressive as it works further west.. nothing doing right now. more waves marching off. none looking like slam-dunk developers... which in a way could work out for the worse. early developers usually recurve.. negative-phase mjo can activate them further west when it gets cranking, potentially.
home brew option still open, for probably the seventh or eighth day. if that mean trough position had been a couple hundred miles west we'd have seen something already. as is, still low potential for cyclogenesis along the southeast coast, but nothing too happening.
eastpac is trying to blow two systems right now... and has been showing active waves for about a week. the atlantic response should be days away now.
HF 0249z09august