I think the NHC or whoever is banking on the TD to stay east of any ridging that build near the east coast later this weekend, thereby nudging TD Irene to the NW and N. At least I hope so, 'cause if she stays south of 26/27N at 70W we could have a problem along the SE coast, particularly if the HPC is correct on building a ridge on the east coast. As I mentioned yesterday, I have preferred the BAM M since Irene's development due to its consistency, and I'm eyeing that model right now, though I think the shallower of the BAMs is the BAM D. The plot is definitely thickening though and we need to watch carefully as a turn out to sea is not a certainty. Cheers!!