Using the trade wind speeds over the Carrabean and the Atlantic basin and the SST's in the entire basin as the two primary factors and based on the level of activity to date the Tropical Storm Risk ( the insurance industry's contractor for hurricane activity predictions) has now revised its forecast effective August 5 to: 22+ storms, 11+ hurricanes and 6+intense.
90% increase in probability of US Atlantic coast hit.
These numbers and increased risk factors are consistent with those of Dr. Gray and the NHC...
Looks like a long summer and fall.