I notice with the latest model runs that the UKMET is the odd model out - seems to be an outlier in taking the storm to Bermuda (maybe the UKMET is just more at home there

). Anyway, I've been posting since this am about the BAM models shift to the west so perhaps the global models will swing that way. NOGAPS has shifted to the west so maybe we're seeing a trend. The globals such as CMC, GFS, & GFDL are behaving rather poorly since they didn't intialize a closed circulation today. I look at the water vapor, and frankly, I don't see anything like a trough to pull Irene northward. In fact, soon she'll be under an upper ridge and this ridge is forecast to build west and north. Looks like east coast of Florida is becoming increasing under the gun. Irene the evil sister of Frances and Jeanne??

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif