thought i'd use the old header from a couple days ago when irene was supposed to have recurved already. thought i'd keep things fair and balanced after all, so ralphfl doesn't start calling me a wishcaster.
speaking of wishcasting... every time there's a weak storm moving north of the islands progged to come west the references to andrew start.. andrew did this, andrew did that.. a cat 5 analog is after all the best thing to use in every situation, as cat 5 hurricanes happen almost every week. really, i saw some smart person toss in dora of 1964... not bad. dora was already a great deal stronger, but the evolving pattern may be something of that ilk.
anywho, the status. irene is being sheared at different heights... northerly shear very high up, sw shear associated with the upper trough that missed it at the outflow levels. this pattern caused irene's brief improvement overnight to result in a decoupling today.. the mlc is still trailing the llc a tad at this hour. dry environment, persisting shear and stack problems (real disorganization in my book) are keeping it moving just south of west and not allowing it to strengthen. of course there are still models killing irene (gfdl and lots of the globals have been losing it for days).. but irene isn't going to die. the scenario that bastardi outlined is coming into play with the escape hatch being the reorganization of the ridge around fri-sat. if irene is far enough north at that time.. it'll do something like felix 1995 did. if irene isn't... it'll come west like a rocket next week and hit somebody like a ton of bricks around wed. irene has probably been at t.s. status all day (and yesterday... t-numbers are usually a little low on sheared systems with sporadic convection... the llc with irene has been solid). should get the official upgrade tomorrow and move west a little more quickly.. slow down around the weekend.. and either meander near bermuda next week or be accelerating and deepening under the ridge. potential impact is still tuesday, august 16th at earliest. it isn't certain by any means... but the configuration is there if the storm evolves correctly to verify what joe b has cooking up.
other areas... wave train is depressed, but an itcz focal area near 45w may activate as a tropical wave approaches. there's good low level convergence, a kick from a wave may start something. there's already a weak trough trailing se from irene leading up from there.. there's the potential pathway.
that little swirl i was eyeballing yesterday tracked south of puerto rico.. showed well on radar.. then there it was running south of hispaniola today. tomorrow morning it should be passing jamaica if it hasnt' become indistinct. hostile shear conditions present, but they are lessening. that little bugger had better be gone tomorrow.. it's like an baby evil clown or something. creepy.
still waiting on the home brew. not expecting. there's a couple of weak impulses moving up ahead of the shortwave near the mid atlantic (hopefully what will pull irene out of from the starting gate)... nothing doing. weak low still near the fl/ga/al confluence... keeping it moist over the southeast day after day.
t.s. fernanda in the eastpac has come up, so the atlantic should go active in a week or so. that relationship works often enough in this type of season. the ensemble means have ridging near the east coast for days... better hope the ridge is amplified rather than zonal to the east.. otherwise this is going to be a long month.
HF 0435z10august