berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Aug 10 2005 08:09 AM
No model is that accurate at Day 7 or 8!

I beg to differ with you; no model can be expected to be that accurate let alone be within any kind of reasonable margin of error one week out. I grant you the GFS goes out 2 weeks, but no one even remotely looks at it beyond day 7 or day 8. There are too many variables that far out. You also have to remember, NWS doesn't sample the upper air until a storm is within a 96 to 120 hour window and there is next to nothing in the way of upper air data out there. The only tool forecasters have is satellite. It irritates me when I see this type of post. Forecasting has gotten really good over the past decade or so, but it's isn't an exact science. Please cut the people who forecast and the models that computers generate some slack; 7 days out?


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