Never rule yourself out if you're within several hundred miles of the cone. However, you're across FL from the closest it could make landfall. At worst you'd probably get a remnant Tropical Storm. And better (for you...not me) is that the storm seems to be tracking north of you on the models. But the models have been very inconsistant on this storm. I don't trust them much beyond a general direction.

Note: Don't quote me on this!

As for the models themselves: Basically they are tracking the long term "best guess" of the center of circulation and/or low pressure. They are very complex statistical models that take into account all kinds of variables for developing a guess at long range conditions. Rarely are they super-accurate, and with tropical systems, even decent accuracy is sometimes lacking. Generally a median of all the models is a good guess for storm tracks, then thrown on a random 15-20 degree cone around it.

If you really want to try and understand the models better, don't look at the spagetti plots but instead look at the model outputs:
PSU: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ (has GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, CMC, and WRF)
FSU: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ (has GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, CMC, UKMET, and MM5FSU)

Generally I tend to look at 700 or 850mb Vorticity, or Sea Level Pressure.

I've never seen anyone mention CMC or WRF around here, so I don't know whether they are trustworthy as far as tropical systems are concerned.