From the 11 AM Discussion:

WHILE THE GFDL AND GFDN ARE FARTHER WEST AND BRING IRENE VERY NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 120 HOURS. THE GFS... HOWEVER... QUICKLY DISSIPATES IRENE AS IT HAS IN THE PAST 48 HOURS OF MODEL RUNS...AND KEEPS THE RIDGE INTACT AND MOVES THE REMNANTS WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARD FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE LATTER SOLUTION WAS DISCOUNTED GIVEN IRENE'S CURRENT WELL ORGANIZED AND IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE.

I think its hard to get a good fix on Irene until it possiibly buildsin strength. But with the dryer air its going to run into is it going to happen?