the problem with some of the models is that they have a tendancy to underpredict intensity, especially with small systems.

I just saw the satellite imagery and XTD10 seems to be getting better organized, despite the strong shear over top of it (sound a little familiar?)

I think it is still possible for this to become a minimal tropical storm in time to break the record for 10 (which is August 23)

also, if anyone is interested, today is the anniversary of Camille in 1969.