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This wave coming off Africa looks to be building some rather impressive ordinary convection already, though there aren't signs of rotation yet: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html I checked the models. Most of them strengthen or maintain the wave across the Atlantic, but then the models aren't very good at predicting unformed cyclones. I also checked the SAL - it seems quite weak right now out in the Atlantic, and quickly dispersing: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8g10split.html The biggest problem looks to be wind shear in the basin. It isn't super strong, but it is there: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7shr.html This is one wave to watch in my mind. |