a'ite, a few thoughts:
xtd 10 is a convective complex curved next to a weak mid-level vortex. A for persistence, D for form. it's only trudging west, either waiting to develop or do nothing. something i do expect to hear from JB on monday is how with the strong typhoon threatening japan, the teleconnection will be for this sucker to spin up and threaten the SE. it has to do more than sputter for that to happen, but those ensembles he was showing last week weren't kidding around... the pattern does support something being there.
the yucatan area feature is crossing, and will be into the BoC tomorrow. should continue to track wnw, probably a NE mexico thing. it has a day or two to spin up... enough models are suggesting it tries that to merit attention. it'll have a building ridge to the north, so it coming up to texas is on the unlikely side.
97L.. one of those massive late aug/early sept type waves... has all kinds of model support. i expect this thing will start developing in the next day or two, and probably start into one of those w/wnw tracks for a few days. if it develops east of 40w it'll likely be slated for recurvature. on the other hand, if it stays weak for a few days it'll have a different set of circumstances late next week as it nears a projected weakness in the central atlantic.
should see jose named this week. maybe more if the basin responds to eastpac activity (but with the typhoons going active in the westpac, it shouldn't favor a large burst of activity).
time to snooze. happy b-day to coop, by the way.
HF 0459z21august