Interesting to note that it may not be the marker of another quiet period in this basin with regards to WPac activity. There are two storms out there, but both of them have subtropical (at least not purely tropical) origins, both small features forming along 20N. While there are indications of another active MJO phase setting up in the Indian Ocean and extreme WPac, I'm not sure these two can be tied to the tropical modes of development/climatological predictors. After 97L, things should be relatively quiet in terms of easterly waves, though there are two over the continent now that will bear watching.

Will be interesting to see what pans out...unless all three features on the board now develop, which the odds are really against that, I don't think we'll break 12 for the month unless there's a flurry on the last day or two of the month. There's just not enough out there worth watching.

Some of the models are trying to spin-up something in the Gulf Stream later this week in conjunction with a strong frontal boundary passing through the SE. It bears watching -- might even capture some of ex-TD 10's pieces -- to see if this trend continues. Waters are certainly warm enough and it wouldn't be the first time we see tropical development off of the end of a frontal boundary. Got a hunch with the way they've been coming into the SE this year, plus the warm waters, that we might be setting up for an active Gulf season into September and October. I fear for anything that hits the Loop Current...it's been strong all year long, with all of the N. Gulf storms missing it so far. Alas, only time will tell.