I'm waiting for the 11am update of the TWO, but until then, there is the TWD from a couple hours ago. It looks like conditions are good for both the soon-to-enter-the-GOM and the east Atlantic waves to form Tropical Cyclones. It looks like it is the start of the first of the busy weeks. Been an unusually quiet August...looks like that is about to change.

Also, we can't forget about the Bay of Campeche wave. That is taking a track very similar to what Gert took. While NHC isn't talking about development of it yet, it still has a ways to go before it finishes crossing the Yucatan,

--RC

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From the 805 AM TWD:

FAR E ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 20N MOVING W 10 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N. LOW LEVEL CURVED BANDING IS
NOTED WITH PLENTY OF CONVECTION. THERE IS LITTLE SHEAR NEAR
THE SYSTEM AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. COMPUTER MODELS
STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT THIS WAVE HAS A CHANCE OF TURNING INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 21W-25W.

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CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N
BETWEEN 68W-71W. THIS IS CERTAINLY AN AREA TO WATCH FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WIND SHEAR FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT IN THIS
AREA..