Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Aug 22 2005 07:10 AM
Re: Several Waves being Watched, Nothing Overly Concerning

NRL now officially has the wave near the Bay of Campeche as 98L.

The sattelite IR presentation of the system also looks impressive for a wave, and with the an air force reserve reconisance aircraft expected to investigate it today, clearly NHC is concerned about its development.


In reference to the wave south of Florida, while I realize that the CMC tends to over-strengthen systems in the gulf, it still makes you worry about what that wave is going to do!

In comparison the Nogaps isn't really picking up on that wave and the GFS is sending it into Florida's east coast before it has a chance to strengthen. I think its track will have great influence on what happens to it.


The first GFDL run on 97L is out...and it dissipates the wave in about 24 hours. I find that highly suspect since almost every other model strengthens the wave, albiet slowly. CMC is still showing a strong system taking a northerly curvature while NOGAPS is keeping it weaker and more westerly.


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