Considering that two of the normally reliable models seem to be out to lunch (the GFS and the GFDL), there is probably less confidence in the forecast track than there would normally be. The latest forecast track basically assumes that little will change from the present motion in the next 36 hours, which is a safe forecast when the model guidance is divergent.

It does bother me that the normally reliable GFDL paints such a grim scenario. The 18Z run begins to slow the storm down and drift it SW beginning around 06Z tonight. I guess we'll see how that pans out. The 00Z model runs should be telling, since those will be the first model runs where the center of the system was well defined at the initial time.