Clark, very nice informative blog on the future of Katrina. It looks like you're pretty consistent with the NHC. To me, the storm so far has been closely following the 18Z GFDL which this run overall is in line with your thoughts.

Being that the storm appears to be only a couple of hours from the GOM, and still at 70 mph, it seems likely that it will remain just below Hurricane strength & then have ample opportunity to start the development cycle again. It does look like some dry air has intruded into the north half of the storm, with very little rain from Alligator Alley northward, so perhaps its lost some steam. My main question is, I live on the Nature Coast about 50 miles north of St Pete - do u think there's much chance for Katrina to turn NE prior my latitude (28.5 N)?