Fri Aug 26 2005 01:44 AM
feet wet

well it's 1:30 AM and katrina's eye is moving back offshore. the position is further SE than i'd expected.. it's right around cape sable. i don't think it will drop a great deal further sw... don't think it'll be too bad in the keys.
the structure indicates northeasterly shear and some subsidence entrainment on the north side. i'm thinking it'll be 12hr or so for the storm to work that completely out.... should slowly reintensify tomorrow, but get significantly stronger on saturday. there is a dry slot that has essentially broken down the northern eyewall.. until that rebuilds some it'll keep the storm nearly stable. one of the outer bands to the S and SE is also quite strong, which keeps the storm's energy from concentrating near the center. these things should work themselves out on friday. it should be a major hurricane by late saturday, and will likely landfall on the panhandle coast as one. don't think pensacola gets this one.. probably the pcb area or east of there, like clark and the consensus are saying. if katrina does something odd like stall, the ultimate landfall point could end up being further east. the central panhandle east of pcb is sparsely populated save tallahassee inland. this would keep the amount of coastal destruction relatively low, though that's little comfort for central panhandle and big bend communities like apalachicola and port st. joe.
side note that 97L's structure and convective organization have transitioned and improved dramatically. if this doesn't get it classified, nothing will. wave to the east has perked up slightly.
HF 0544z26august

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