Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 26 2005 06:30 AM
Re: Flash Flooding

That list reads like the hit list of places devestated almost 13 years to the date by Hurricane Andrew. The heaviest rain remains over that area at this time and I wouldn't be surprised if those additional 6" are underdoing it just a little.

Over the past half-hour to hour, the center of Katrina appears to have essentially slowed down quite a bit *just* offshore. It is still drifting southward, but at more like 2-4mph and not moving SW at 10mph. I think this might be the start of that slowing trend and will need to be monitored overnight to see if that is indeed the case. The storm is undergoing a bit of reorganization -- some dry air worked into the center of the storm while it was over land and is giving the appearance of a center being further offshore than it really is -- but should reach hurricane intensity once again in the next 6-9hr.

My 2:30am position estimate on the storm is just south of the tip of Ponce de Leon Bay (for reference, please see http://sofia.usgs.gov/geer/2003/posters/wq_bicyever/sulfatemapx.gif) drifting SSW at 2-3mph. This general motion with a turn towards the west is expected through the morning hours. This will keep the center near-shore through the overnight hours and bring it to a position SW of Naples and Everglades City later in the morning.

Now that the center is over the Gulf, it's "go" time. What happens over the next day is going to go a long way toward determining where this storm makes landfall and at what intensity it makes landfall. Good night everyone, and get some rest. This is just the middle of the first round of Katrina -- we've still got a long way to go with this one.



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